He Saw Trouble Coming. Now He Sees It Going.

In a period of prolonged BAD news, it is a very good news to read that our painful economic nightmare may be drawing to a close. The New York Times business columnist Gretchen Morgenson provided an important insight from top economist Ian Shepherdson who says the beginning of improving economic conditions are evolving.

In 2005, Mr. Shepherdson was one of the first to see a real estate bubble and predicted a meltdown followed by a big recession. He was right. Not many paid attention, but those who did and shorted those complex real estate investment instruments, made billions.

With all the confusion following the elections — with GOP House leaders threatening to limit healthcare reform by refusing to fund government implementation, including the expansion of coverage for low income earners and mandates for coverage — this economic prediction is especially hopeful news for healthcare organizations who have seen a rise in unfunded care as families have lost benefit coverage as the result of business closings and layoffs.

Big companies, who have had access to credit for some time, are already beginning to hire, but overseas. It is Main Street where the jobs are created, but debt-laden consumers have not been spending. This coupled with extremely tight restrictions on lending for small businesses, has kept the lid on expansion up until now.

As the recession deepened through 2009 and early 2010, a great many healthcare organizations laid off workers or simply did not replace employees who retired or took jobs elsewhere. As we move into 2011, now is a good time for CEOs to reassess their market strategies and employment plans. Moving aggressively, getting out in front of competitors by fortifying their leadership and management teams with top employees from other organizations, is the smart move now.

We still have a long way to go and we may not return to the go-go economy of the mid-1990s for a long time, but this story highlights some encouraging news.